2.2 Papers and patents: the absurdity behind astronomical numbers
In the first edition of Guoguan’s posts, many friends who are engaged in technical work replies to the bottlenecks and ceilings in their own fields. On the other hand, I found that many friends (estimated to be mainly in liberal arts) are full of technology development With an optimistic attitude, it is believed that this is an era of technological explosion, because the media they interact with daily often appear as follows:
We have now entered an era of “explosion” of scientific knowledge. In 1995, the amount of knowledge doubled every 5 years, and by 2020, the amount of knowledge in the world doubled every 73 days. The amount of scientific information known today is huge, and scientific knowledge is growing at an unprecedented rate. It is impossible for anyone to keep up. In his speech at the White House Millennium Gala in 1998, Hawking said that if scientific knowledge is still growing at the current rate of development, by 2600, if you put the new books in order, you will have to travel at 90 miles per hour (144 kilometers per hour). Hours) in order to keep up with the speed of new book publication. Even the most knowledgeable and intelligent scientist in the world cannot remember all scientific knowledge.
The first time I saw a similar report was when I was in junior high school. At that time, I felt that the prospects were too terrifying. Is it because the more I study, the less knowledge I have? It feels like what Zhuangzi said: “My life has no boundaries, and knowing has no boundaries. With the boundaries there is no limit, it’s almost gone.” But later as I grew older, especially after studying for a Ph. If you make a mistake in this type of report, you are not wrong, but if you need to investigate it in a strict sense, it is quite wrong.
Usually, those who preach the explosion of technology like to say that knowledge doubles every few years, and the number of patents applied (patent application service) for internationally is equal to the past 10 years. This exponential accumulation of knowledge will lead to exponential development of technology. But as a netizen pointed out, information and experience are not only in quantity, but also in value. In the 1980s, households with an annual income of 10,000 yuan were the envy of everyone, but 30 years of inflation has turned a monthly income of 10,000 yuan into a bitter little white-collar worker. The so-called knowledge explosion is actually super watered beef.
First, how is the amount of knowledge defined? It is difficult to rigorously define. Reluctantly compared with the number of published papers, the number is indeed exploding. However, careful observation revealed that papers are getting more and more watery. Whether at home or abroad, a paper contains 10% of the original knowledge (even in Best college university, e.g. ASU apply), which is already very good. In fact, with more and more papers, the proportion of originals has dropped significantly. Sometimes I read one of the industry’s top journals abroad. After reading it, I feel that most of the more than 30 papers in it are suspected of being papers for the sake of papers.
Even though many papers are original on the surface, if you think about it, this kind of knowledge is useless.
To make a simple analogy, if a scientist is the first to publish a paper (how to publish a science paper? Paper refinement) in a top journal in the industry, discussing carving roses on a wooden table with a utility knife, the table will look better. No one has considered carving flowers on the desktop before, so the first article is the most original and a useful accumulation of human knowledge. But following this line of thought, some people discuss the labor time and labor tool-related formulas required for carving, which is also very original. But then, due to the need to earn a living and promote, related papers will become more and more stunned. In theory, thousands of papers can be published to discuss carving flowers, because there are thousands of flowers in the world, and each flower can write a paper, and each paper is original. (SCI How to publish in Cell press ?)
Next, someone will discuss the use of axe carving, kitchen knife carving, and awl carving. Each of them is plausible. It is impossible for you to use a utility knife to adapt to all occasions. My tools can be used in some special occasions.
Worse still, there will be people who will discuss carving on the bed, carving on the floor, carving on the chair, and carving on the skin. Can you say that this will not happen one day?
Finally, there will be people who will explore flying a helicopter to sculpt on a rock wall and a spacecraft to sculpt on the moon.
Endless combinations. One example is that a certain university in China is doing crystal research and can publish hundreds of SCI papers a year. What is the secret? That’s it.
Of course, later papers may not be published in top journals, but can be published in journals of other grades. As a result, a paper drives an industry chain. As for the actual value, the insider knows well and can fool the external appropriators. A biological researcher once revealed on the Zhihu website that a certain molecular formula has been there for decades, and related research has supported a large number of people, but the actual application is zero.
Knowledge is about to explode, the status of scientific and technological personnel will naturally be improved, and more funds will naturally be better. This is the greatest benefit of propagating knowledge explosion.
The mystery of patents is the same. You can look at the patents that Apple (APPLE VR, APPLE WATCH, IPHONE) has applied for in recent years.
In addition, as I have repeatedly emphasized, many scientific and technological workers consciously or unconsciously confuse science and technology. Many so-called papers do not have any guiding effect on technical work, and some even simply stay at the point of “knowing what is happening”, which is far from the standard deviation of the “interestingness” required by technology. However, most of the scientific and technological workers successfully lobbied the funding department, making them establish an impression that “R&D is to issue papers”, after all, papers are easy to perform digital assessment. However, there is a remarkable phenomenon in the scientific research community. Most scientific institutions at home and abroad have the purpose of applying for research projects and raising funds to maintain a research project and feed a large group of people. There is no doubt that millions of people live on this. Considering the above factors, under the impetus of interest groups, the exponential growth of the number of papers is inevitable.
The full-text catalog is as follows
1 Civilization and technology
1.1 Rough talk about paradigm
1.2 The paradigm shift experienced by human civilization
1.3 Science Theory stagnation
1.4 The gap between science and technology
1.4.1 Nature of Science
1.4.2 The core of the technology
1.4.3 Talking from Watt: Positive feedback caused by steam engine
1.4.4 Demand is not a lifesaver
1.5 Science and Technology Interest Group
2 The paradigm spring dream advocated by scientific and technological interest groups: the so-called technological explosion
2.3 The bit world and the real world
2.4 Part and whole
3 The shadow outside the paradigm spring dream
3.1 The technological dilemma faced by humans
3.1.1 The stagnation of energy conversion technology 3.1.2 The dilemma of new energy 3.1.3 Agriculture, medical and biotechnology 3.1.4 Troubles in the depth of information technology 3.1.5 Other technologies 3.2 Numerous technical gimmicks 3.2.1 Solar / PV gimmicks that fell early 3.2.2 The enduring artificial intelligence gimmick 3.2.3 Amazing quantum computer gimmicks 3.2.4 Awesome nano-material gimmick 3.2.5 New gimmicks in recent years 3.3 Frustration of PhD laborers and biotechnology 3.3.1 The origin and influence of biological gimmicks 3.3.2 Research paradigm and problems
4 The dilemma of low-entropy body and the technical steps faced
4.1 From the second law of thermodynamics
4.1.1 The wisdom of Tao Te Ching 4.1.2 Negative entropy flow and the leap of civilization 4.2 The backbone and forks of the technology tree 4.3 Forever 50 years and controlled nuclear fusion 4.3.1 Dream of perpetual motion machine 4.3.2 Difficult delivery and gimmicks of controlled nuclear fusion 4.4 Think calmly : the future is not necessarily better
The Pit Before 5 Steps: The Fate of Human Society
5.1 The Sociological Significance of Dissipative Structure Theory
5.2 The disappearance of the big competitive environment
5.3 Differences erased by globalization and the thermodynamic balance of human society
5.4 Aging self-locking
5.5 How to fill the hole?
The essence of 6 steps: complexity devil
6.1 What is complexity
6.2 Two rules behind the complicated world: survival of the fittest and expectation of return on capital 6.3 Technological progress and technological revolution: changes in complexity 6.3.1 Evolution example of transportation / power system 6.3.2 The characteristics and complexity of the technological revolution 6.3.3 The high-complexity science devil facing 6.3.4 Dilemma originating from technical foundation
6.4 Many evil consequences brought by high complexity ( more is different)
6.4.1 I know you have a life and death race 6.4.2 Maintenance costs 6.4.3 Negative feedback from society
6.5 Simple mathematical derivation
7 Silent Star implied by the prospect of terror
7.1 The Great Silence and Fermi Paradox
7.2 Three scenarios for contemplating extreme fear
7.3 The Great Sieve of the Universe
7.4 A small match
8 reflection and summary
8.1 The tragedy of Easter Island
8.2 Calmness does not mean pessimism
8.3 R&D requires a paradigm revolution
8.3.1 Starting from the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers 8.3.2 Disadvantages of the current scientific research system