Science Theory stagnation: Paradigm cage 1.3
A certain technical level forms a certain paradigm. Under different paradigms, looking at each other is very treacherous and beyond imagination. Therefore, the public in agricultural society cannot imagine that professional women in industrial society can leave their families and are busy all day long. High school girls in industrial society cannot understand the effects of agricultural society. Early marriage and early childbearing.
The establishment of a paradigm may take a long time, but the paradigm is self-stable, and it takes time to jump out of the paradigm. There are countless examples in human history that this paradigm cage is often very strong, and it takes courage and sacrifice to break through the paradigm cage.
On a large scale, the humiliation of the Chinese civilization in modern times is a typical example. During the agricultural society, the Chinese civilization was the most glorious civilization in terms of depth and breadth. Whether you like it or not, the core of Chinese civilization is Confucianism and its bureaucratic system deeply rooted in farming society. With nearly 3000 years of influence, traditional Chinese civilization has been unable to solve the paradigm of farming. The so-called Needham Mystery is actually It represents a paradigm prison in the depths of Chinese civilization and cannot escape. Even under waves of external interference, Huaxia Civilization is extremely reluctant to change itself. Its actions are always after the humiliation, the Westernization Movement, the letter on the bus, the New Deal in the late Qing Dynasty, the Revolution of 1911, the May Fourth Movement, and the date of communism. Extremely radical, and ultimately use the “Great Leap Forward”, the Cultural Revolution and family planning as markers to completely bury the traditional Chinese farming civilization.
For nearly a hundred years, Kodak was the leader of optical imaging technology and the leader in the film industry. Kodak once built the world’s first digital camera, but did not promote it. Once at the corporate level, Kodak was the representative of standing still. The king has formed his own way of thinking and stakeholders. He is unwilling to change his technical route. He makes up some papers about the lack of digital technology for himself. However, new revolutionary technologies generally have one characteristic: the initial possibility Very chemical photosensitive film has reached its limit, 40 years later, in the storm of the digital revolution, Kodak declared bankruptcy.
From the previous aspect, I have been concerned about a phenomenon. In the 1990s, VCD was a new technology in China. As a new technology, it spread rapidly in Chinese society in just a few years, but it is strange that VCD has not become popular in the United States. Americans still like to use video recorders. The reason is that the Chinese did not experience the era of video recorders before VCD, and the ownership rate of video recorders in American households is very high. General households, retailers, content providers and distributors have formed a use of recorders for decades. The paradigm is very convenient to use and easy to repair, so I don’t want to jump to the technical route of VCD. Digital discs became popular in the United States until the appearance of DVDs, which were far more profound than recorders.
If summed up as a whole, the three technological revolutions and the subsequent series of industrial revolutions destroyed the agricultural society and shaped a new industrial civilization paradigm.
After more than two hundred years of rapid development, there is a basic belief in the subconscious mind of the entire society: future technology is as miraculous as gods and monsters, making our lives better. The social planning, resource development and industrial construction of most countries are based on this belief. Some kind of pollution is okay now, there will be a way to solve it in the future; now urban planning people spend a lot of energy to travel between the two places for a long time, it doesn’t matter, the energy problem will not be a big problem in the future; gradually some people buy a pair of socks, which are shipped from thousands of miles away, it doesn’t matter , The transportation cost is very low; etc.
The vast majority of people rarely really think about whether technology can continue to grow rapidly? ? Can the current high-level industrial civilization based on fossil energy continue?
As far as human society as a whole is concerned, it has actually surrounded a paradigm cage, which is composed of many factors, including social contradictions, resource constraints, institutional constraints, and even negative feedback from the technology itself.
But while IT technology is dazzling and confusing, technical stagnation in other fields is becoming more and more obvious. A very simple fact. Looking back at the social pattern 40 or 50 years ago, young people dreamed of driving a spaceship to conquer. The vast sea of stars, now?
Human industrial civilization is built on the basis of cheap energy. Now energy technology has undergone a major transformation, and no signs of revolutionary mutations can be seen. It is estimated that few people can imagine that if major technological progress suddenly stagnates for a hundred years, no major What will the world become as the source of cheap negative entropy flow in the new architecture of scale?
But it did happen in history. As mentioned earlier, the first round of technological explosion transformed primitive society into an agricultural society. After that, the entire human society crawled at the speed of technology for thousands of years before ushering in the industrial revolution.
If stagnation really occurs, human society will simply not be prepared to respond.
Behind the hustle and bustle, the shadows continue to expand.
The full-text catalog is as follows
1 Civilization and technology
1.1 Rough talk about paradigm
1.2 The paradigm shift experienced by human civilization
1.3 Science Theory stagnation
1.4 The gap between science and technology
1.4.1 Nature of Science 1.4.2 The core of the technology 1.4.3 Talking from Watt: Positive feedback caused by steam engine 1.4.4 Demand is not a lifesaver
1.5 Science and Technology Interest Group
2 The paradigm spring dream advocated by scientific and technological interest groups: the so-called technological explosion
2.1 Rendering and brainwashing
2.2 Papers and patents: the absurdity behind astronomical numbers
2.3 The bit world and the real world
2.4 Part and whole
3 The shadow outside the paradigm spring dream
3.1 The technological dilemma faced by humans
3.1.1 The stagnation of energy conversion technology 3.1.2 The dilemma of new energy 3.1.3 Agriculture, medical and biotechnology 3.1.4 Troubles in the depth of information technology 3.1.5 Other technologies 3.2 Numerous technical gimmicks 3.2.1 Solar / PV gimmicks that fell early 3.2.2 The enduring artificial intelligence gimmick 3.2.3 Amazing quantum computer gimmicks 3.2.4 Awesome nano-material gimmick 3.2.5 New gimmicks in recent years 3.3 Frustration of PhD laborers and biotechnology 3.3.1 The origin and influence of biological gimmicks 3.3.2 Research paradigm and problems
4 The dilemma of low-entropy body and the technical steps faced
4.1 From the second law of thermodynamics 4.1.1 The wisdom of Tao Te Ching 4.1.2 Negative entropy flow and the leap of civilization 4.2 The backbone and forks of the technology tree 4.3 Forever 50 years and controlled nuclear fusion 4.3.1 Dream of perpetual motion machine 4.3.2 Difficult delivery and gimmicks of controlled nuclear fusion 4.4 Think calmly : the future is not necessarily better
The Pit Before 5 Steps: The Fate of Human Society
5.1 The Sociological Significance of Dissipative Structure Theory
5.2 The disappearance of the big competitive environment
5.3 Differences erased by globalization and the thermodynamic balance of human society
5.4 Aging self-locking
5.5 How to fill the hole?
The essence of 6 steps: complexity devil
6.1 What is complexity
6.2 Two rules behind the complicated world: survival of the fittest and expectation of return on capital 6.3 Technological progress and technological revolution: changes in complexity 6.3.1 Evolution example of transportation / power system 6.3.2 The characteristics and complexity of the technological revolution 6.3.3 The high-complexity science devil facing 6.3.4 Dilemma originating from technical foundation
6.4 Many evil consequences brought by high complexity ( more is different)
6.4.1 I know you have a life and death race 6.4.2 Maintenance costs 6.4.3 Negative feedback from society
6.5 Simple mathematical derivation
7 Silent Star implied by the prospect of terror
7.1 The Great Silence and Fermi Paradox
7.2 Three scenarios for contemplating extreme fear
7.3 The Great Sieve of the Universe
7.4 A small match
8 reflection and summary
8.1 The tragedy of Easter Island
8.2 Calmness does not mean pessimism
8.3 R&D requires a paradigm revolution
8.3.1 Starting from the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers 8.3.2 Disadvantages of the current scientific research system