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Science Theory Stagnation (1.2)

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Science Theory stagnation 1.2

The paradigm shift experienced by human civilization

If the concept of paradigm is applied to technological civilization, then it is clear that gathering and hunting is one paradigm, and agricultural civilization is another paradigm. Compared with agricultural civilization, industrial civilization is a completely different thing.

After taking a crucial step on the evolutionary tree, mankind relied on hunting and gathering for a living within hundreds of thousands of years. It is estimated that ten million hominids were scattered on the earth ten thousand years ago.

At that time, the population of the population on the earth was very small, no more than 50 people. Men were the main hunters, while women were mainly engaged in plant gathering and providing food. The nature of such production activities determined the main characteristics of human society at that time:

  • 1 Very low population density. Because solar energy cannot be used actively, the population cannot exceed the limit of the food obtained by hunting and gathering. According to research, there are only about 4 people per square kilometer.
  • 2 Extremely ignorant, survival is overwhelming, there are no surplus materials to support additional personnel, basically relying on animal instinct.
  • 3 Strong mobility and no settled life.

In one sentence, there is no civilization at all. The strongest is the biggest consensus of the tribe.

But beginning about 10,000 years ago, a technological revolution represented by agriculture, horses, wheels, metallurgy, and writing liberated mankind from the age of ignorance, and transformed the world far beyond the primitive society before. The key technological progress is embodied in agriculture. For the first time, human beings can actively fix solar energy. The new flow of negative entropy enables human society to multiply for generations and gradually break away from the barbaric state, and establish an orderly civilization. Throughout history, the characteristics of major agricultural civilizations are very similar:

  • 1 With relatively high population density, agricultural civilizations such as China and India are extremely advanced, capable of feeding 50 people per square kilometer.

  • 2 For settled life, cultivated land requires a fixed labor force.

  • 3 Pyramid-like order, farmers at the bottom support the rulers and intellectuals at the top.

The agricultural revolution has brought mankind to a new technological level. The substantial increase in negative entropy flow means that civilization has begun to sprout. In the following several thousand years, the technological turtles of various civilizations advanced rapidly, and technological progress showed a sporadic state of embellishment. Due to the funnel effect of technology, during this period, the mutual diffusion of technologies between major civilizations (except for isolated and semi-isolated American civilizations and sub-Saharan African civilizations) with different geographical locations eventually reached a state of thermodynamic equilibrium. In an agricultural society, for the vast majority of the population, their basic lifestyle is the same as that of their ancestors dozens of generations ago, and their energy use level is at the same level as their predecessors. “Global History” [Yuan Lanfeng’s press: American historian Levin Stavros Stavrianos] commented on this, the world in 1500 is not much different from the world in 500 BC . For the intellectuals before the industrial revolution, stagnation and immutability were their cognitive paradigms of the world.

Cover of Stavrianos' “Global History”

A certain random disturbance and positive feedback in the 18th century exceeded a certain threshold, and Watt’s improved steam engine triggered an unprecedented industrial revolution. [Yuan Lanfeng’s note: Actually, I don’t think the industrial revolution comes from random disturbance. Europe has been working hard in this direction for hundreds of years before this, but other civilizations have not worked hard in this direction. Therefore, it is only natural for Europe to realize the industrial revolution and get rid of other civilizations. 】The agricultural society was gradually changed, and the new energy and power revolution allowed human civilization to get rid of the Malthus trap and crossed a crucial step. In just over 200 years, the world has undergone earth-shaking changes. The vast majority of people now accept a completely different paradigm: civilization advances forever, and the future represents beauty.

Watt and steam engine

The full-text catalog is as follows

The full-text catalog is as follows

1 Civilization and technology
1.1 Rough talk about paradigm
1.2 The paradigm shift experienced by human civilization

1.3 Paradigm prison

1.4 The gap between science and technology

1.4.1 Nature of Science

1.4.2 The core of the technology

1.4.3 Talking from Watt: Positive feedback caused by steam engine

1.4.4 Demand is not a lifesaver

1.5 Science and Technology Interest Group

2 The paradigm spring dream advocated by scientific and technological interest groups: the so-called technological explosion

2.1 Rendering and brainwashing

2.2 Papers and patents: the absurdity behind astronomical numbers

2.3 The bit world and the real world

2.4 Part and whole

3 The shadow outside the paradigm spring dream

3.1 The technological dilemma faced by humans

    3.1.1 The stagnation of energy conversion technology

    3.1.2 The dilemma of new energy

    3.1.3 Agriculture, medical and biotechnology

    3.1.4 Troubles in the depth of information technology

    3.1.5 Other technologies

 3.2 Numerous technical gimmicks

    3.2.1 Solar / PV gimmicks that fell early

    3.2.2 The enduring artificial intelligence gimmick

    3.2.3 Amazing quantum computer gimmicks

    3.2.4 Awesome nano-material gimmick

    3.2.5 New gimmicks in recent years

 3.3 Frustration of PhD laborers and biotechnology

    3.3.1 The origin and influence of biological gimmicks

    3.3.2 Research paradigm and problems

4 The dilemma of low-entropy body and the technical steps faced

 4.1 From the second law of thermodynamics

    4.1.1 The wisdom of Tao Te Ching

    4.1.2 Negative entropy flow and the leap of civilization

 4.2 The backbone and forks of the technology tree

 4.3 Forever 50 years and controlled nuclear fusion

    4.3.1 Dream of perpetual motion machine

    4.3.2 Difficult delivery and gimmicks of controlled nuclear fusion

 4.4 Think calmly : the future is not necessarily better

The Pit Before 5 Steps: The Fate of Human Society

5.1 The Sociological Significance of Dissipative Structure Theory

5.2 The disappearance of the big competitive environment

5.3 Differences erased by globalization and the thermodynamic balance of human society

5.4 Aging self-locking

5.5 How to fill the hole?

The essence of 6 steps: complexity devil

6.1 What is complexity

6.2 Two rules behind the complicated world: survival of the fittest and expectation of return on capital

6.3 Technological progress and technological revolution: changes in complexity

     6.3.1 Evolution example of transportation / power system

     6.3.2 The characteristics and complexity of the technological revolution

     6.3.3  The high-complexity science devil facing

     6.3.4  Dilemma originating from technical foundation

6.4 Many evil consequences brought by high complexity ( more is different)

 6.4.1 I know you have a life and death race

 6.4.2 Maintenance costs

6.4.3 Negative feedback from society

6.5 Simple mathematical derivation

7 Silent Star implied by the prospect of terror

7.1 The Great Silence and Fermi Paradox

7.2 Three scenarios for contemplating extreme fear

7.3 The Great Sieve of the Universe

7.4 A small match

8 reflection and summary

8.1 The tragedy of Easter Island

8.2 Calmness does not mean pessimism

8.3 R&D requires a paradigm revolution

8.3.1 Starting from the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers

8.3.2 Disadvantages of the current scientific research system
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