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Science Theory Stagnation (1.1)

 ·  ☕ 10 min read

Science Theory stagnation 1.1


The moment when the fireworks explode is gorgeous and beautiful, but when human eyes see it, the explosion is almost over. This article is one of the most thought-provoking articles I have read. Earth civilization has entered a critical point! In the dark cosmic forest, the fossil energy on the planet is a small match. If it can be ignited, then the entire forest will be obtained; if not, it will be trapped on the earth!

1 Civilization and technology

What is civilization? The explanation on Baidu is as follows: Civilization in English comes from the Latin Civis, which means city residents, and its essential meaning is the ability of people to live in cities and social groups. The extension means that the criteria for judging the emergence of civilization are mainly the emergence of cities, the emergence of characters, and the establishment of national systems. The most important alternative is the emergence of cities, which can be said to be the birthplace of civilization. But when all history books tell about a specific civilization, they will start with the agricultural revolution, because without the surplus food and negative entropy flow brought about by the agricultural revolution, how can cities and their orderly life come?

Computer Game Civilization 6
Computer Game Civilization 6

Therefore, the rebirth of all civilizations can be attributed to a leap forward on the technological level: agricultural technology including fixed solar energy, metal smelting technology, horses, construction technology and writing technology for disseminating information. After that, although the surface is not so conspicuous, the moisturizing is silent, and the development of technology has deeply affected the progress of civilization.

As one netizen said, under normal circumstances, the number of a certain organism and the survival resources show a simple inverse relationship. The difference between human beings is that another variable technical factor is added to form the interaction of the three. Every important comprehensive technological revolution in population and resources can bring about major changes in population and resources and trigger social changes. When technological progress encounters difficulties, the economy, in a nutshell, gradually evolves, and technology and the society in which they live transform and influence each other. When technology tends to stagnate, the space for human development is gradually limited. It will deteriorate, leading to a phased regression in social development.

A scholar specially wrote an article that pointed out: “The world economic crisis occurred between the first and second technological revolutions, the second and third technological revolutions, which were 1857 and 1929-1933, respectively. And the financial crisis of 2008, the aftermath has not yet arrived, was actually caused by the collapse of the third technological revolution.”

Mankind, the progress of human civilization, is definitely not a factor that determines technology. Sometimes, even in modern America in the 21st century, there are still a large number of poor people, let alone other countries. It is not possible to use technology to solve the problem of polarization between the rich and the poor, but the level of technology determines the space for civilization. And it must be pointed out that the improvement of the overall technological level of human society will eventually benefit all sectors of society. It is a simple fact that in today’s world, excluding those war-torn areas, the poorest people in other countries live better than the poor in the agricultural society.

A certain level of technology will formulate corresponding civilized rules. Take the agricultural society as an example. In terms of material production, the agricultural society relies on physical work, and all civilized family inheritance is male. Social morality always matches social reality. The simplest example is that the low technical level of society determines the high infant mortality rate. In this environment, propagating family planning and prenatal and postnatal care is the suicide of the nation, and cultivating a culturally advanced civilization will definitely win the long-term competition. In addition, in the history of agricultural society for thousands of years, most civilizations have tended to technological stagnation, and technological conditions have determined the limited boundaries of the empire. Outside the borders, the benefits of domination are small, and they cannot resist the costs, and can only be regarded as a wild land. It is also difficult for the most advanced intellectuals to imagine that there is the same level of civilization beyond the borders.

Material production methods, ethics and thinking models will feed back and restrict each other, and eventually form an ultra-stable structure. This is the “paradigm of civilization.”

This paradigm of civilization is a double-edged sword, which sometimes acts as a lubrication, and sometimes it is a social prison.

1.1 Rough talk about paradigm

The concept and theory of paradigm was put forward by the famous American philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn and constructed systematically in “Structure of Scientific Revolution” (“Structure of Scientific Revolution”) (1962). It refers to It is a collection of beliefs, values, technologies, etc. shared by members of a community, and is a worldview and behavior mode that the army-leading scientific researcher group conforms to. In Kuhn’s view, a paradigm is a basic commitment to ontology, epistemology, and methodology. It is the sum of hypotheses, theories, samples, and methods accepted by the group of scientists. These things form the common beliefs of scientists psychologically. Ritzer believes that paradigm is the basic intention of research objects in some scientific fields. It can be used to explain what should be studied, what questions should be asked, how to question the questions, and explain how we get answers

Cover of “The Structure of the Scientific Revolution”

Paradigm is the unit that has the broadest consensus in a scientific field, and we can use it to distinguish different communities or sub-communities of scientists. It can merge, summarize, define and interconnect different paradigms, theories, methods and tools that exist in a science.

The concept of paradigm was a revolution in the philosophy of science. After that, the concept of paradigm was gradually applied to other areas. For example, industrialists believe that technological innovation, from steam engines to computers, can cause changes in the industrial structure (paradigm); economists use policies and policies to promote the rationalization of the corporate structure (paradigm); a series of this has also appeared in management. The quasi-organizational paradigm, the open paradigm, the synchronous paradigm, the collaborative paradigm, the reference paradigm, and the random paradigm are a mixture of new terms; sociologists regard it as a treasure to describe the so-called “social paradigm” changes.

In Kuhn’s view, the two paradigms are incommensurable. The essence of “scientific revolution” is, in a word, “paradigm shift.”

There have been many paradigms and paradigm revolutions in human history. The most famous are the geocentric theory and heliocentric theory.

Greek astronomical observations show that the apparent motion of a few celestial bodies, such as the sun, moon and some planets, is not the case. Plato has not even proposed a task for his students: how to use a combination of several individual special uniform and instantaneous motions. , To solve the contradiction between ideal situation and reality.

He believes that the earth is still in the center of the universe. The Moon, Mercury, Venus, Sun, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn successively from the earth circle the earth in their respective orbits. Among them, the movement of the planets is more complicated than that of the sun and the moon: the planets move on the current wheel, and the current wheel revolves around the ground along the uniform wheel. This theoretical system is in line with daily experience and can roughly explain the trajectory of celestial bodies. It was later combined with religion and ruled the West for more than a thousand years. It was regarded as a standard forever by most people. This is the Western astronomy paradigm before Copernicus.

Ptolemy Astronomical System

The geocentric theory is considered truth within a short period of time, but long-term astronomical observations have shown that there is still some difference between an equal wheel plus a current wheel and the observed actual planetary motion trajectory. Therefore, one current wheel is not enough, and another overlap Round, not precise enough? Add one more! In the end, more than 80 rounds were made, so that some people lamented: If I were God, I would never create such a complicated world. Geocentric theory is embedded in the crisis.

In the end, Copernicus proposed the heliocentric theory, a system completely different from the geocentric theory, and opened a new paradigm, while Kepler and Newton further perfected Copernicus’s theory. The new theory is simple and clear, and it can also predict the trajectory of future stars. Astronomy has ushered in a whole new stage.

The full-text catalog is as follows

The full-text catalog is as follows


1 Civilization and technology

1.1 Rough talk about paradigm

1.2 The paradigm shift experienced by human civilization

1.3 Paradigm prison

1.4 The gap between science and technology

1.4.1 Nature of Science

1.4.2 The core of the technology

1.4.3 Talking from Watt: Positive feedback caused by steam engine

1.4.4 Demand is not a lifesaver

1.5 Science and Technology Interest Group

2 The paradigm spring dream advocated by scientific and technological interest groups: the so-called technological explosion

2.1 Rendering and brainwashing

2.2 Papers and patents: the absurdity behind astronomical numbers

2.3 The bit world and the real world

2.4 Part and whole

3 The shadow outside the paradigm spring dream

3.1 The technological dilemma faced by humans

    3.1.1 The stagnation of energy conversion technology

    3.1.2 The dilemma of new energy

    3.1.3 Agriculture, medical and biotechnology

    3.1.4 Troubles in the depth of information technology

    3.1.5 Other technologies

 3.2 Numerous technical gimmicks

    3.2.1 Solar / PV gimmicks that fell early

    3.2.2 The enduring artificial intelligence gimmick

    3.2.3 Amazing quantum computer gimmicks

    3.2.4 Awesome nano-material gimmick

    3.2.5 New gimmicks in recent years

 3.3 Frustration of PhD laborers and biotechnology

    3.3.1 The origin and influence of biological gimmicks

    3.3.2 Research paradigm and problems

4 The dilemma of low-entropy body and the technical steps faced

 4.1 From the second law of thermodynamics

    4.1.1 The wisdom of Tao Te Ching

    4.1.2 Negative entropy flow and the leap of civilization

 4.2 The backbone and forks of the technology tree

 4.3 Forever 50 years and controlled nuclear fusion

    4.3.1 Dream of perpetual motion machine

    4.3.2 Difficult delivery and gimmicks of controlled nuclear fusion

 4.4 Think calmly : the future is not necessarily better

The Pit Before 5 Steps: The Fate of Human Society

5.1 The Sociological Significance of Dissipative Structure Theory

5.2 The disappearance of the big competitive environment

5.3 Differences erased by globalization and the thermodynamic balance of human society

5.4 Aging self-locking

5.5 How to fill the hole?

The essence of 6 steps: complexity devil

6.1 What is complexity

6.2 Two rules behind the complicated world: survival of the fittest and expectation of return on capital

6.3 Technological progress and technological revolution: changes in complexity

     6.3.1 Evolution example of transportation / power system

     6.3.2 The characteristics and complexity of the technological revolution

     6.3.3  The high-complexity science devil facing

     6.3.4  Dilemma originating from technical foundation

6.4 Many evil consequences brought by high complexity ( more is different)

 6.4.1 I know you have a life and death race

 6.4.2 Maintenance costs

6.4.3 Negative feedback from society

6.5 Simple mathematical derivation

7 Silent Star implied by the prospect of terror

7.1 The Great Silence and Fermi Paradox

7.2 Three scenarios for contemplating extreme fear

7.3 The Great Sieve of the Universe

7.4 A small match

8 reflection and summary

8.1 The tragedy of Easter Island

8.2 Calmness does not mean pessimism

8.3 R&D requires a paradigm revolution

8.3.1 Starting from the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers

8.3.2 Disadvantages of the current scientific research system
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